Inversis highlights Europe's recovery in a divergent global environment
- The entity highlights the resilience of the European economy, supported by coordinated fiscal policies, a stable monetary environment and solid corporate balance sheets, compared to a US economy that is showing signs of fatigue.
- The ECB is maintaining the deposit facility at 2%, which is boosting investment and consumption. GDP growth of 1.2% is forecast for 2025, with prospects for improvement in 2026.
- The stimulus programme approved by Germany is restoring business confidence and could boost growth to 1.5% in 2026, serving as an engine for European recovery.
- Despite the continued strength of the US labour market, automation and wage pressure are beginning to moderate domestic demand. The market anticipates further rate cuts by the Fed, bringing rates to between 3.5% and 3.75% by the end of the year.
- Inversis is committed to corporate debt and quality credit, reducing exposure to US equities and strengthening positions in Europe and Japan, prioritising defensive companies.
Madrid, 30 October 2025 – Inversis has offered its global and regional view of the current macroeconomic scenario, on the basis of which it is preparing its investment strategy for the fourth quarter of 2025. Led by its chief macroeconomic strategist, Ignacio Muñoz-Alonso, the firm highlighted how, while the US economy is beginning to show signs of fatigue after a prolonged expansionary cycle, Europe is gaining traction, supported by coordinated fiscal policies, a more stable monetary environment and a business base with solid balance sheets.
The year is coming to an end with exceptional performance in virtually all markets. Gold is up 52%, while the EuroStoxx and S&P 500 are up 18% and 16% respectively, in a year marked by investor optimism and moderating inflation.
The Eurozone is advancing thanks to a more favourable financial environment and accommodative fiscal and monetary policies that are supporting the recovery in private consumption. The European Central Bank is maintaining the deposit facility at 2%, which is beginning to favour both investment and consumption, although its full effect will materialise throughout 2026. The ECB forecasts GDP growth in the Eurozone at 1.2% for the year as a whole, one or two tenths above the estimates at the beginning of 2025. This figure coincides with the upward revision published by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which confirms the improvement in European activity despite the impact of tariffs.
According to Inversis, the impact of these trade measures has ultimately been limited, thanks to the agreement reached in July that moderated their effect on European exports. This reduced pressure has allowed for a moderation of the poor outlook in the spring, strengthening business confidence in the region.
Corporate credit continues to show strength. European companies maintain low debt levels and solid margins, which improves their solvency and facilitates investment. Confidence indicators and manufacturing PMIs also confirm a positive trend, with companies and households once again perceiving a more stable environment after two years of uncertainty.
Germany leads the European fiscal push
The fiscal programme announced by Germany in March has restored business confidence and lays the foundations for 1.5% growth in 2026, after 2025 finally closes on a positive note with modest growth of 0.2%. Increased public spending, investment and exports will be the pillars of this recovery, which is expected to spread to the rest of the Union.
In addition, the commitment by European countries to allocate 5% of their GDP to defence and security is emerging as a new structural driver for the continent's economy. This measure could add between 0.9 and 2.3 additional growth points by 2035.
The US enters a downturn
In the United States, indicators point to a gradual slowdown despite strong growth figures in the second quarter. Although employment remains strong, tensions are beginning to emerge in the labour market, with wage increases putting pressure on costs and a growing effect of labour being replaced by automation and artificial intelligence technologies. This structural change is beginning to moderate domestic demand in some sectors.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) is heading towards further rate cuts. The market anticipates a 25 basis point cut in October and another in December, which would bring official rates to between 3.5% and 3.75% by the end of the year. Although employment continues to show strength, wage growth is keeping pressure on inflation in services, limiting the Fed's scope to cut rates more quickly.
The contrast with Europe is also reflected in the debt markets: while yields are rising in the eurozone due to increased supply and fiscal uncertainties, in the US they are falling on expectations of an expansionary monetary cycle.
Asset Allocation: preference for quality and corporate credit
Based on this macroeconomic diagnosis, Inversis has defined its investment strategy for the last quarter of the year. The entity maintains a balanced position in fixed income, with a significant weighting in corporate debt, which benefits from the strength of corporate balance sheets and still-firm margins. Exposure to sovereign debt remains low given the fiscal volatility in some countries.
In high yield, the entity increases its weighting to 5%, focusing on European issuers, and increases its exposure to investment grade credit in emerging markets by five points, seeking diversification and additional returns.
In equities, the entity reduces its global exposure, especially in the US, after a year of widespread gains. Inversis maintains its commitment to Europe and Japan, with a preference for quality companies and defensive sectors.
About Inversis
Inversis, owned by Banca March and Euroclear, is Spain's leading provider of technology and outsourcing solutions for financial institutions, insurance companies and new entrants in the distribution of investment products. Since its creation, Inversis has invested continuously in technology and innovation in order to adapt quickly to the needs of institutional business. Thanks to Inversis' technology, its institutional clients can outsource activities and processes that are not part of their core business, thereby increasing their efficiency. In addition to being an investment product platform, Inversis provides brokerage, settlement and custody services and state-of-the-art technological outsourcing solutions; treasury and capital market services; depositary services; brokerage services, online brokerage and analysis services.